Amundi Asset Management’s Global Head of Macro: Long-term Optimism Toward China's Economy Remains Intact
【导读】东方汇理资产管理全球宏观研究主管：坚持长期看好中国经济的态度
中国基金报记者 吴娟娟
Juanjuan Wu， China Fund News
Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro Research at Amundi, told China Fund News on June 27th, that his long-term optimism toward China's economy remains unchanged. He stated that China's economic transformation is a gradual process and that this transformation is currently underway. Pradhan believes that globalization is difficult to reverse given the high degree of global economic integration. While trade conflicts remain unclear in the short term, prolonged trade disputes could seriously undermine global economic growth. He made the remarks in an interview during the 2025 Amundi World Investment Forum, an annual flagship event organized by the largest asset manager in Europe.
6月27日，在法国巴黎举行的东方汇理年度旗舰活动“2025世界投资论坛”上， 东方汇理全球宏观研究主管Mahmood Pradhan在接受中国基金报记者专访时表示，对中国经济长期看好的态度不改。他表示，中国的经济转型是渐进过程，转型正在发生。他认为，全球化进程很难逆转，全球经济已经高度一体化。短期之内，贸易冲突很难明朗化，但是一旦贸易问题拖得太久，将严重拖累全球经济增长。
Mahmood Pradhan currently serves as Global Head of Macro at Amundi Asset Management. He previously worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for over a decade, serving as Deputy Director of the European Department and overseeing economic and financial affairs for the eurozone and its peripheral countries. Early in his career, he conducted monetary policy and financial market research at the Bank of England.
Mahmood Pradhan现任东方汇理资产管理全球宏观经济主管，他曾于国际货币基金组织（IMF）任职超过十年，担任欧洲部副主任，主管欧元区及其外围国家的经济和金融事务。职业生涯早期，他在英格兰银行从事货币政策和金融市场研究工作。
Amundi Asset Management is Europe's largest asset management institution and ranks 8th among global asset management institutions. As of the end of Q1 2025, its assets under management reached 2.247 trillion euros.
东方汇理资产管理为欧洲最大的资产管理机构，在全球资产管理机构中排在第8名。 截至2025年一季度末，其资产管理规模达2.247万亿欧元。
Long-term Optimism Toward China Remains Unchanged
坚持长期看好中国经济的态度
China Fund News: The Middle East conflict escalated again. How should investors view the uncertainty in the Middle East region?
中国基金报：中东冲突再升级。当前，投资者应如何看待中东地区的不确定性？
Mahmood Pradhan: To date, the Middle East's geopolitical situation has had relatively limited impact on the global economy. Markets and investors remain focused on oil prices. While escalation initially drove oil prices up 20% rapidly, they subsequently declined just as quickly. Typically, rising oil prices coincide with US dollar appreciation, yet this time the dollar showed no significant volatility. The Middle East situation's primary impact on the global economy manifests through oil prices and supply. While it could pose substantial risks to oil prices, this scenario has not yet materialized.
Mahmood Pradhan：截至目前，中东地区的地缘政治局势对全球经济的影响相对有限，市场和投资者关注的焦点在油价。尽管局势升级曾导致油价迅速上涨20%，但随后油价迅速回落。通常情况下，油价上涨会伴随美元升值，然而，此次美元并未出现显著波动。中东局势对全球经济的主要影响体现在油价和石油供应上，它可能对油价构成巨大风险，但这尚未发生。
China Fund News: At the same time last year, you expressed a long-term optimistic attitude toward China's economy. Do you stick to your view of China’s economy?
中国基金报：去年同一时间，你表达了对中国经济长期看好的态度。你对中国市场的看法发生了什么变化？
Mahmood Pradhan: I stand by my previous assessment.
Last year, I noted that China will reduce its dependence on the real estate sector and identify new growth drivers. These new drivers primarily include energy transition initiatives such as electric vehicles, and the technology sector. Over the past year, China's technology industry has attracted substantial investment. Furthermore, Chinese technology companies maintain attractive valuations compared to their US counterparts.
I maintain my long-term optimistic outlook on China's economy. Economic transformation is gradual rather than instantaneous, but this transformation is actively occurring.
Mahmood Pradhan：我坚持此前的看法。去年，我提到中国将会减少对房地产部门的依赖，寻找新的增长动力。新的增长动力首先包括能源转型，如电动汽车和科技行业。过去一年来，中国科技行业吸引了大量的投资。此外，相较于美国科技公司，中国的科技公司估值仍然有吸引力 。
我坚持长期看好中国经济的态度。经济转型是渐进的，并非一蹴而就，但是转型正在发生。
The World Has Become Highly Integrated, It is Difficult to Reverse Globalization
世界已经高度一体化，全球化很难逆转
China Fund News: In the near future, will trade and tariff issues become clearer?
中国基金报：在不久的将来，贸易和关税问题是否会明朗化？
Mahmood Pradhan: Trade issues present significant challenges. "Trade fragmentation" disrupts supply chains, imposing costly consequences on economic growth. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic about trade issues in the long run, as all parties have incentives to resolve these problems and the global economy cannot sustain high tariffs indefinitely.
Thus far, consultations among parties have produced a hastily assembled problem-solving timeline. Moving forward, additional framework agreements will emerge, similar to the arrangement between the UK and US. However, numerous detailed issues remain unresolved even after framework agreements are established. Trade negotiations typically prove protracted. Currently, determining when tariff issues will be resolved remains difficult.
Mahmood Pradhan：贸易问题是非常棘手的问题。“贸易碎片化”干扰供应链，这对经济增长而言代价高昂。尽管如此，我对贸易问题长期持乐观态度，因为各方都有解决问题的动机，全球经济很难长时间地承受高关税 。
截至目前，经过各方协商，一个解决问题的时间表仓促出炉。接下来，更多的框架协议会出现，如同英国和美国之间达成的框架协议。不过，框架协议达成之后，仍有很多细节问题需要解决。贸易谈判通常旷日持久。目前，我们很难确定关税问题何时能得到解决。
China Fund News: US President Trump has unprecedentedly defined trade deficits as a national security issue. Is there legal uncertainty in this?
中国基金报：美国总统特朗普史无前例地将贸易逆差界定为国家安全问题，这是否存在法律上的不确定性？
Mahmood Pradhan: Using national security as justification for imposing universal tariffs on all trading partners is unprecedented. However, since "Liberation Day," the US has granted exemptions to specific sectors. For instance, the US has provided certain tariff exemptions for semiconductors and rare earth materials industries. This occurs because relocating production lines requires considerable time, and manufacturing of some products cannot be easily transfered to the US or other countries.
Mahmood Pradhan：以国家安全为理由对所有贸易对手施加普遍性的关税前所未有。但是，自“解放日”以来，美国豁免了特定部门的关税。例如，美国对半导体、稀土材料行业的关税进行了一定的豁免。这是因为转移生产线需要很长的时间，且某些产品的生产不能轻易被转移到美国或其他国家 。
China Fund News: What should countries learn from trade tensions?
中国基金报：各国应该从贸易紧张关系中学到什么？
Mahmood Pradhan: First, unfair trade practices need to stop. This includes not only tariffs but also protection of certain specific industries and sectors by trading entities. Second, there's a need to address the impact of globalization on specific sectors of the economy and specific types of workers. In the long run, the benefits of globalization are enormous. These benefits give us the ability to solve the above problems. For example, investing resources in the education sector to enable workers in specific industries to acquire skills or training. Over time, the types of jobs that economies can provide will change, and governments need to adapt to changes. We should not reverse globalization to solve the above problems. Countries can address problems brought by globalization through domestic policies, for example, helping workers transition to different sectors to alleviate employment issues.
Mahmood Pradhan：首先，不公平的贸易做法需要停止。这不仅包括关税，而且还包括贸易主体对某些特定行业、部门的保护。其次，需要解决全球化对经济特定部门、特定类型工人的影响。从长远来看，全球化的好处巨大。这些好处令我们有能力解决上述问题。例如，向教育部门投入资源，使特定行业的工人获得技能或培训等。随着时间推移，经济体能够提供的工作类型会变化，政府需要适应变化。我们不应该逆转全球化来解决上述问题。国家可以通过国内政策来解决全球化带来的问题，例如，帮助工人转移到不同的部门以缓解就业问题。
China Fund News: Are we facing the risk of globalization reversal?
中国基金报：我们是否面临全球化逆转的风险？
Mahmood Pradhan: I don't think we face the risk of complete globalization reversal; the world is too integrated. That said, we do face the risk of globalization stalling. Over the past 20 years, globalization has been on an upward trend. However, in the past four to five years, globalization has entered a plateau phase.
Mahmood Pradhan：我不认为我们面临全球化完全逆转的风险，世界太一体化了。话说回来，我们的确面临全球化停滞的风险。过去20年来，全球化一直呈现上升趋势。不过，过去四五年，全球化进入平台期。
Capital Flows into Europe and Emerging Markets, but "American Exceptionalism" Has Not Disappeared
资金流入欧洲和新兴市场，但“美国例外论”并未消失
China Fund News: Is there hope for alleviating the US debt problem?
中国基金报：美国债务问题有望得到缓解吗？
Mahmood Pradhan: The US government debt problem is a long-standing issue. Although the rise in 30-year bond yields raises investor concerns, the problem has not yet reached a level that requires sounding the alarm.
The market widely predicts that the US will continue to be mired in debt because the fiscal deficit problem has not been effectively resolved. However, the US debt trajectory is unsustainable and the US will need to address this issue.
Pressure will come from two aspects. First, interest costs will continue to rise. Currently, the debt interest paid by the US accounts for about 3%-4% of GDP. Compared to the situation a few years ago when interest rates were lower, things have changed significantly. Second, some of the US fiscal spending programs will face pressure, such as Social Security, which will face enormous pressure in the next 5 to 8 years. If the debt problem is not resolved, this means the government will be forced to cut retirement benefits. Solutions around specific spending programs must emerge within the next 5 to 8 years. During this period, markets may bear pressure. However, the risk of US default is almost zero; countries that issue debt in their own currency do not need to default. However, in a high-debt environment, countries may tend to reduce debt burden by pushing up inflation. Investors will worry about overly loose monetary policy and higher inflation.
Mahmood Pradhan：美国政府债务问题是一个长期存在的议题。尽管30年期债券收益率的上升引发投资者担忧，但目前问题尚未达到需要拉响警报的程度。
市场普遍预测美国将继续深陷债务泥潭，因为财政赤字问题尚未得到有效解决。但是，美国债务轨迹是不可持续的，并且美国需要解决这个问题。
压力将来自两个方面。首先，利息成本将持续上升。目前，美国支付的债务利息约占GDP的3%~4%。与几年前利率较低时的情况相比，事情已经发生显著变化。其次，美国的部分财政支出项目将面临压力，例如社会保障，在未来5年到8年内将面临巨大压力。如果债务问题得不到解决，这意味着政府将被迫削减退休福利。围绕具体支出项目的解决方案必须在未来5到8年内出现。在此期间，市场或承受压力。不过，美国违约的风险几乎为零，以本币发行债务的国家无需违约。然而，在高债务环境下，国家或倾向于通过推高通胀来减轻债务负担。投资者将会担心迎来过于宽松的货币政策和更高的通胀。
China Fund News: Solving the debt problem requires enormous political will and determination. Where does the determination come from?
中国基金报：解决债务问题需要巨大的政治意愿和决心。决心来自哪里？
Mahmood Pradhan: Payment pressure on specific programs will ultimately bring political determination. If the debt problem ultimately leads to the US cutting Social Security, this would be costly for any ruling party. Imagine the US government cutting 25% of retirement benefits; this would reduce the living standards of a large portion of the population, thereby bringing enormous political pressure.
Mahmood Pradhan：对具体项目的支付压力最终会带来政治决心。如果债务问题最终导致美国削减社会保障，这对任何执政者来说都代价高昂。试想美国政府削减25%的退休福利，这将降低很大一部分人口的生活水平，从而带来巨大的政治压力。
China Fund News: How do Amundi Asset Management's clients view "American exceptionalism"?
中国基金报：东方汇理资产管理的客户们怎么看“美国例外主义”？
Mahmood Pradhan: Clients are concerned about adjustments in US asset prices. Dollar depreciation and rising bond yields highlight these concerns. However, after the US stock market declined, it recovered quickly. The question clients ask is whether the decline of "American exceptionalism" is a long-term trend. However, currently, they do not consider the weakening of "American exceptionalism" as a serious risk.
The reasoning behind this is as follows. The dollar has three functions. First, reserve currency. Second, payment currency in international transactions; 80% of goods in global markets are priced in dollars. Third, the dollar is the most commonly used currency for official and private cross-border lending. Based on the above understanding of the dollar's role, changes in the dollar exchange rate value should not be understood as the decline of American exceptionalism.
Mahmood Pradhan：客户担心美国资产价格的调整，美元贬值以及债券收益率的上升凸显了这些担忧。不过，美国股票市场下跌之后迅速恢复。客户询问的问题是：“美国例外主义”式微是不是长期趋势？不过，当前他们并不认为“美国例外主义”削弱是严重的风险。
这背后的理由如下：美元有三重功能，第一，储备货币；第二，国际交易中的支付货币，全球市场上80%的商品以美元定价；第三，美元是官方和私人跨境借贷时最常用的货币。基于上述对美元角色的认识，美元汇率价值的变化不应该被理解为“美国例外主义”的衰落。
China Fund News: Currently, global investors have excessive allocation to US assets. Starting from this point, does it make sense for investors to moderately diversify assets away from the US?
中国基金报：当前，全球投资者对美国资产配置过高。以此为起点，投资者将资产从美国适度分散是有意义的吗？
Mahmood Pradhan: As of the end of 2024, the US accounted for over 70% of the MSCI World Index. It is reasonable for investors to moderately reduce the proportion of US assets in their portfolios. Ten years ago, the US accounted for about 60% of the MSCI World Index. For investors, if portfolios are overly concentrated in a single market, this usually requires vigilance.
In fact, investors are reducing their portfolio concentration. Recently, we have observed capital flows into European stock markets and emerging markets. It should be noted that this does not mean global investors are selling US stocks on a large scale. This merely indicates that they are reducing their dependence on the US in the process of rebalancing portfolios. In other words, they still invest in the US but pay more attention to diversified investment.
Mahmood Pradhan：截至2024年底，美国在MSCI世界指数（MSCI World Index）中所占的比例超过70%。投资者将美国资产占组合比例适度降低是合理的。10年前，美国约占MSCI世界指数的60%。对投资者来说，若组合过度集中于单一市场，通常需要警惕。
事实上，投资者正在降低其组合集中度。近期，我们观察到资金流入欧洲股票市场和新兴市场。需要注意的是，这并不意味着全球投资者在大规模地出售美国股票。这仅仅表明，他们在重新平衡组合的过程中减少了对美国的倚重程度。换言之，他们仍投资美国，但更注重分散投资。
China Fund News: Within the next year, what are the three major risks you are most concerned about?
中国基金报：未来一年内，你最关注的三大风险是什么？
Mahmood Pradhan: First, tariff issue negotiations and resolution taking too long. This will be a serious drag on global economic growth. Second, geopolitical fragmentation. More geopolitical fragmentation is not beneficial for economic growth. Third, economic growth below expectations. Economies around the world are gradually recovering, but growth faces risks. In an environment of slowing growth, investor concerns about public debt and interest rates will bring vicious consequences. I hope I'm wrong on all of these.
Mahmood Pradhan：首先，关税问题谈判及拖的时间太长，这将严重拖累全球经济增长。其次，地缘政治方面的分裂。更多的地缘政治分裂对经济增长无益。第三，经济增长低于预期。世界各地的经济逐步复苏，但是增长面临风险。在增长放缓的环境中，投资者对公共债务和利率的担忧会带来恶性后果。希望是我多虑了。
编辑：黄梅
校对：乔伊
制作：小茉
审核：许闻
